Holla. It's been a while since I've wrote anything extensive and there's a lot of intense stuff going on right now.

As for the election, it's going to be close, but I'm gonna keep saying what I've been saying since I started writing about it. I think Bush is up 2 or 3 percentage points right now, and it's the president's election to lose. I'll come out with my final projection on Monday, but right now, I'm leanging toward something like 296-242. We shall see though.

The World Series has also been intense, but nothing can really compare to what went down in the ALCS. That comeback was simply the most amazing sports event that I have ever seen. I guess it was fitting for the Red Sox to finally triumph over the Yankees the way they did.

As far as ND football goes, last week's game was one of my most depressing moments over the last four years here. I hate Boston College with a burning passion, because some BC students talked shit to my mother after the game two years ago. There was no game I wanted to win more than this one, so combine that with the way it went down and it hurt pretty bad. I've been a pretty strong defender of Willingham as long as he's been here, but I thought the coaching in the second half of the game was simply atrocious. There was no excuse for playing the way they played. Does that mean Willingham should go? I don't know, but if they aren't ready to play Tennessee in two weeks, it's a pretty bad sign.

Fall Break was pretty sweet, I spent the first weekend in Milwaukee where Lauren was interviewing at the Medical College of Wisconsin. It was a really nice city and I enjoyed my time thoroughly. Then we caravaned down to Missouri, where I spent the week. All in all, it was a really fun week, topped off by the fact that Lauren found out she got into MCW earlier this week. So huzzah!

Meanwhile, I finished my Teach for America application, and for the moment it's out of my hands. We'll see what goes down, but for the moment, I'm just trying not to worry about it.

I think that's all that's going down over here, so holla atcha boy.

JRicoND: I'd rather be a butt-fucking quitter than a mathematical dick any day of the week

JRicoND: See, you're like John Kerry, while I'm like George W. Bush, who still has faith
wheremu17: im like john kerry cause i look like a horse
wheremu17: and cause i kill babies
JRicoND: And you can't throw a football
wheremu17: holy shit, im john kerry!

For those of you following the Ryan Parsons Fall Midwest Tour 2004, these are the following dates:

Thursday: Chicago (Cancelled)
Friday - Sunday: Milwaukee, WI
Sunday night - Friday: Kirkisville, MO
Friday night: South Bend, IN

Remember, tickets are still available at your local box office or any Ticketmaster outlet.

Not too much else to talk about besides the fact that I've been quite busy thanks to midterms and extracurriculars, so it will be quite nice to relax with my baby all next week. Holla atcha boy.

So it would appear that my first election post went through after all. Crazy stuff. Meanwhile, some good links.

http://www.footballfansfortruth.us

http://johnkerryisadouchebagbutimvotingforhimanyway.com/

http://www.cnn.com/2004/SHOWBIZ/Movies/09/30/people.leonardodicaprio.ap/index.html

Take a second to check out that last link. I mean, I could see fighting over Kelly Kapowski or Stacy Corosi (or maybe even Lisa or Tori if I had enough to drink), but Jesse Spano? C'mon!

So the other day, I wrote a detailed, articulate post with my latest election projections. Naturally, my computer froze up and I lost it just as I was about to publish it. As a result, you get my ultra-abridged version. Take my last projection, move Wisconsin and Iowa to Bush's column, and you've got Bush 291-247. The only two ways for Kerry to win at this point are:

A) Hold on to his base and win Florida;
or B) Hold on to his base and take some combination of Ohio (20), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), West Virginia (5), or Nevada (5) that adds another 23 electoral votes.

Personally, I don't see it happenening barring some major mistake by the president in the coming weeks.

One month away from the presidential election, a few things have changed since my last projection. Namely, the Republican convention gave Bush a solid bounce, and the first debate has given Kerry a little bump (although it remains to be seen whether or not the bump is going to be permanent). With that said, I think the president is probably up about 3 points right now and he's made headway in the three states that I labeled as toss-ups last time (Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin). Also, Bush has taken the lead in the last several polls to come out of Iowa to take his first consistent lead there since the beginning of the general election campaign. So, my current tally is 291-247. The only differences from my projection of last month would be to move Wisconsin and Iowa to Bush's side. At this point, for Kerry to win the election, he absolutely has to take every one of his base states and find a way to pluck either Florida or some combination of Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10), Nevada(5), West Virginia(5), and Ohio(20) that gives him an extra 22 electoral votes. Needless to say, with the polarization of the electorate, it's going to be an uphill climb. And as I've said for a while now, barring a glaring error by the president, this election is his to lose. I know these words make some people ecstatic and others vomit in their mouths, but I honestly don't see how John Kerry can win this election without some serious help from Bush. Holla.

As a sidenote, there is an extremely small possibility that there could be a tie in the Electoral College if Kerry somehow manages to win his entire base plus Wisconsin, Iowa, and either West Virginia or Nevada. That would make the count 269-269, and Bush would win in the House of Representatives. Not gonna happen, but it would be thoroughly entertaining, and I think liberals around the country would have a collective emotional meltdown. That, or go on a killing spree. Either way, it would be very exciting.

Quick analysis of the first debate tonight:

I thought Bush was mediocre, solid in most spots but never spectacular. I thought Kerry did a good job of getting his message across, which is more than he's done for most of this campaign. However, I think Bush did what he had to do, which is not make any glaring errors or big mistakes. While I think Kerry held an edge in this debate, I don't think he did enough to transform the dynamics of this race. With Bush holding a 5 or 6 point lead, as long as he does not flop big time over the next month, he should be able to hold steady and win. Kerry did what he had to do tonight, but it may simply be a case of too little, too late. He still has two more debates though, and with one focused on domestic issues, he still has an opportunity to strike hard at the president. If Bush could not defeat Kerry in a debate on foreign policy, it raises questions about his ability to perform on that topic. Will it be enough? I don't think so, but only time will tell.

With all that being said, in terms of substance, I think Bish still holds an edge over Kerry. I just don't think he did a great job tonight of getting his substance across to the American people and the undecided voters. All in all, I thought it was a solid debate that actually had a good degree of substance and delineated the differences between the candidates. For my final grades, I give Bush a C+ and Kerry a B+. I'm gonna hit you up with my revised election projection on October 2nd, but if anyone watched the debate, I'm very interested to hear your opinions. Holla.