One month away from the presidential election, a few things have changed since my last projection. Namely, the Republican convention gave Bush a solid bounce, and the first debate has given Kerry a little bump (although it remains to be seen whether or not the bump is going to be permanent). With that said, I think the president is probably up about 3 points right now and he's made headway in the three states that I labeled as toss-ups last time (Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin). Also, Bush has taken the lead in the last several polls to come out of Iowa to take his first consistent lead there since the beginning of the general election campaign. So, my current tally is 291-247. The only differences from my projection of last month would be to move Wisconsin and Iowa to Bush's side. At this point, for Kerry to win the election, he absolutely has to take every one of his base states and find a way to pluck either Florida or some combination of Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10), Nevada(5), West Virginia(5), and Ohio(20) that gives him an extra 22 electoral votes. Needless to say, with the polarization of the electorate, it's going to be an uphill climb. And as I've said for a while now, barring a glaring error by the president, this election is his to lose. I know these words make some people ecstatic and others vomit in their mouths, but I honestly don't see how John Kerry can win this election without some serious help from Bush. Holla.

As a sidenote, there is an extremely small possibility that there could be a tie in the Electoral College if Kerry somehow manages to win his entire base plus Wisconsin, Iowa, and either West Virginia or Nevada. That would make the count 269-269, and Bush would win in the House of Representatives. Not gonna happen, but it would be thoroughly entertaining, and I think liberals around the country would have a collective emotional meltdown. That, or go on a killing spree. Either way, it would be very exciting.