If you're looking at this, you should go here.

Hey, guess what!

In about six months, I'm going to be a dad!

How awesome/crazy/wonderful is that?

Because it’s a slow day at work (and because the internet is down here, thus giving me no recourse to kill time [I’m writing this in Word, if you’re interested]), I thought I would blog it up.

If you can’t figure out by the dates between posts, I’ve given up assuming a regular blog schedule. I figure that now I’ll write whenever something interests me. (Or I’m bored, as now.)

Quick political update: Bush is in the tank and there’s not too much he can do at this point to rally his poll numbers. Most of those who support him will do so no matter what, and most of those who are opposed have such an ingrained hatred for him that there is little he can do at this point to win them back.

However, barring some MAJOR political events between now and November, there is no chance the Democrats will take either house of Congress. None. Incumbents are simply too entrenched in their positions. The Dems will probably pick up seats in each house, but the GOP will hold a majority through 2008 at least.

Speaking of 2008, the race seems to be getting more wide open by the day. On the Republican side, John McCain is the obvious frontrunner, but he’ll face some challenges ahead. Primarily (pun intended), they’ll come from his right, where conservatives do not trust him in the least. They see him as a publicity whoring moderate.

Meanwhile, the media is starting to realize what they’ve done in marking McCain as “the good Republican” as opposed to the dirty, evil radical right-wingers that he works with. They’ve built up McCain into the most popular political figure in America (save maybe Giuliani) and now that McCain is reestablishing his conservative roots, they can’t smear him like they have other Republicans.

As such, conservatives would be very very foolish to ignore McCain in 2008. They do so at their own peril. John McCain, if nominated, will win the general election against anyone the democrats put up. Hillary Clinton would have no chance. Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, John Kerry, Al Gore, John Edwards, Jesus Christ? No chance. McCain is that popular.

And he’s more conservative than most realize. He’s one of the biggest hawks in Congress. He’s strongly pro-life and anti-gay marriage. He’s tough on spending. He’s not perfect, but he’s about as good as it gets.

On the left, Hillary is of course the favorite, but conventional wisdom has really turned against her over the past few months. Liberals and conservatives alike have tired of her endless repositioning, triangulating and calculating. Her posturing has opened her up to attacks on both her left and her right.

On the left, she’ll face a challenge from one of Russ Feingold, John Kerry, or Al Gore. What Feingold has going for him is his strong history of liberalism (see his 2001 Patriot Act vote) and a visceral anti-Bush crowd of supporters. Despite repeated warnings, some on the left will still ignore electability and seek out the most liberal candidate they can find.

Gore and Kerry, meanwhile, have reestablished their bond with the left since their respective election defeats. Gore grew a crazy beard, went into hiding, and came back screaming about global warming to anyone who would listen. Kerry, meanwhile, tried to filibuster Samuel Alito from the Swiss Alps. Douchebag.

From the center will be Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, and maybe a few other governors. They will attack Hillary’s past and posturing and argue that they are the only candidates that can end 8 years of Republican governance. If Warner emerges fro this crowd, as seems likely, Hillary will face a formidable and polished foe.

The good news for Hillary is that a lot of the potential Democratic candidates REALLY want to be president. I say this is good news because the glut of candidates could really dilute the money and volunteer pool. With Hillary’s commanding early money lead, the longer it takes for one anti-Hillary alternative to emerge, the longer she’ll have this commanding lead. If she can do enough early to convince the other candidates that they’re campaigns are lost causes, she should win the nomination.

Long story short (Too late!), I still think McCain and Hillary are going to be the nominees in 2008. And I think John McCain will wipe the floor with her smug, self-satisfied, smirking face.

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In other news, Lauren’s got me hooked on American Idol, as much as it pains me to admit it. Quick predictions:

5. Paris

4. Elliot

3. Catherine

2. Taylor

1. Chris

And one other prediction: Paula Abdul will be arrested at some point in the next three years for possession of illegal drugs. Either that, or institutionalized for insanity.

It's been a while. A combination of my job and my laziness has made it difficult for me to update here.

There's not too much new in my life. We're settled in our new apartment, which is very refreshing. Lauren's toiling away in med school and I'm working day by day. Sometime this week, my first issue of The Wisconsin Taxpayer should be finished. To my knowledge, I've never written anything for mass consumption like this, so it's somewhat nervewracking. However, I'm feeling pretty good about it and I've gotten a lot of help on it. It's about Wisconsin Gaming, and it focusing on tribal casinos and the state lottery. It's pretty dry, but I think it'll be pretty good.

The other big thing in my life right now is the realease of the Gilette Fusion. If you don't know me very well, you may not remember my affection/obsession with the old Onion five blade razor column. It's somewhere back in my archives. It's probably my favorite Onion piece ever, and now the prophecy has been fulfilled. See the article here and the Gilette Fusion website here. Check out Cassandra. She can shave me any time.

Winter Olympics: eh. Never been a huge fan. But we will win five 2-liter Coke products if the United States medals in the four-man bobsled event. Come on America, it's bobsled time!

Probably going to ND next weekend. My friend is pregnant, and I have to see if I can convince her to name her first-born after me. If you're there and want to see me, let me know. Otherwise, I'm just going to show up at your door and harass you.

I'm going to try to update more regularly again so you can really learn about the life of Ryan.

The Parsons Theory of Presidential Politics

Policies don't matter. The only thing that does is connecting with voters. And the only way to do that is to be "cool."

"Coolness" is the strongest predictor of presidential elections that exists. Simply put, the "cooler" candidate wins every presidential election. To test this theory, let's examine every presidential election in the last 50 years.

2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry. One is a Texas cowboy. The other is a pseudo-intellectual Francophile. Advantage: W.

2000: W. vs Al Gore. This time, it's the cowboy against an actual intellectual. While real smart people are cooler than fake smart people, cowboys beat nerds every time. Advantage: W.

1996: Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole. Say what you will about Clinton, the man was cool. Dole, on the other hand, came off like a crotchety old man. If Dole had shown his sense of humor before the election the way he did after, it would have been much closer. Advantage: Clinton.

1992: Clinton vs. George H. W. Bush. Classic case of young versus old. Young guy plays sax on the Arsenio Hall show. Old guy: Not gonna do it. Advantage: Clinton.

1988: Bush vs. Dukakis. Neither one was particularly cool, but in this relativistic world, the former CIA director and WW II veteran beats the Massachusetts liberal who thought it would be a good idea to ride in a tank. Advantage: Bush.

1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale: The Gipper talks shit to the Soviets. Extremely cool. Paves the way to a 49 state electoral thrashing. Advantage: Reagan.

1980: Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter. The Gipper talks shit to a Georgia peanut farmer. Very cool. Advantage: Reagan.

1976: Carter vs. Gerald Ford. Let's be honest, the democrats could have put up Kevin Federline and he would have been perceived as cooler than bumbling Gerald Ford. Plus, pardoning Nixon was uncool. Advantage: Carter.

1972: Richard Nixon vs. George McGovern. Another lesser of two uncool matchups. Nixon is the classic exception to the Parsons theory. Apparently very uncool, he decisively won two presidential elections and may have been robbed of a third against the coolest president of the 20th century.

1968: Nixon vs. Hubert Humphrey. Had Bobby Kennedy not been killed, this would not even be a question. Still, Nixon was definitely not cool. Also, George Wallace's third party candidacy threw the coolness dynamic out of whack. The Parsons theory only works in a two party system.

1964: Lyndon Johnson vs. Barry Goldwater. Unclear who was cooler here. LBJ was a political master and wheeler-dealer. Goldwater was an extreme and unapologetic conservative. But let's be serious. LBJ was still living off the coolness of JFK's ghost. Advantage: LBJ.

1960: John F. Kennedy vs. Nixon. Kennedy, the quintissential cool president, won precisely because Nixon looked so damn uncool in the infamous debate. Advantage: JFK.

1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson. The most anticipated rematch since next year's ND-USC game. Other than Patton, Eisenhower is the era's coolest guy. Stevenson was a classic nerd. No contest. Advantage: Ike.

For further evidence, ask yourself this: who is the coolest president ever? If you're not a jackass, the answer is George Washington. And who is the only president to sweep every electoral vote? Washington. Can't get any cooler than that.

What emerges from these case is a clear picture that coolnes determines electoral success in presidential races. (of course, the notable exception is Nixon. Thoughts?) Thus, my prescription for interested political parties is to recruit the coolest candidate they can find. By 2020, I fully expect a Mr. T vs. Chuck Norris presidential race. My prediction? Pain.

Freedom, Fulfillment and the Future

I've been thinking a lot about the future recently. Of all the threats that the world and Western civilization faces during the next few decades (and there are more than a few), I think the biggest will be the advancement of the idea that personal fulfillment can only be achieved by not committing yourself to anything bigger than yourself. This idea of freedom as being free from all commitments is one that has grown exponentially in recent years, and it manifests itself in many, many ways.

The two that I've been thinking about lately are childrearing methods and declining ordinations of priests. Raising children and committing yourself to a life of chastity and obediance are two of the hardest tasks I can imagine. Consequently, no one seems to want to do them any more. Society keeps telling us that if something can't be done quickly and easily, it's not worth doing at all.

This bodes ill for our future and personally makes me sad. A society that views all obligations and commitments as negatives can not sustain itself forever. Maybe I'm just Chicken Little, but I see the sky starting to fall all around me. One in eleven boys will be put on medication for ADD or ADHD during their childhood. One in eleven! Do we really believe that almost 10% of the boys in America need to be drugged? Or is it more likely that a lot of parents simply haven't taken the time to discipline their children and teach them what is and is not acceptable behavior?

I'm certainly not Tom Cruise; I believe medication can serve an important purpose for some. But the problem is in the quick fix mentality that so many parents take today. Parenting is a difficult process where results are often not seen until ten, 20, or more years down the road. Medicating is often a short-term solution to a long-term problem. It's no surprise to see which one is becoming more commonplace.

The same is true for the priesthood. It is a challenging life full of self-sacrifice. You have to completely give of yourself to something (and Someone) that you can never even see. It may be painful. It may be frustrating. But does that mean that it should be avoided? By giving of yourself, do you become less human? Less whole? If we as a society believe that the answer to these questions is "Yes," our future may be darker than we understand.

In the interests of full disclosure, I must admit that I might be a priest today if they were allowed to marry. It's just that I've always felt a calling to the married life, and I believe there is no greater good I can do in this world than being a great husband and father. If that means that I have to give up some amorphous "freedoms" that I might otherwise get to keep, so be it. I'm ready.

"Freedom - Oh freedom - well that's just some people talking
Your prison is walking through this world all alone..."

So it's been a while since I've hit you up with some knowledge. My new job makes it much more difficult to update, as I actually have to do work while I'm there. Combine that with an 80-minute commute each way, and my blog falls a few spots down on my to do list.

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There are a lot of things I should address in this entry since it's been so long. First, my new job is both interesting and challenging. For those of us that weren't paying attention, I'm now a policy research associate at the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance. I research and write a number of publications. It's actually a really intense job, because the guys who I work for are really good at what they do and I'm woefully uderqualified.

My main job right now is to write the January edition of The Wisconsin Taxpayer. It's on gambling in Wisconsin, so being from Las Vegas I'm obviously an expert. As soon as I'm done I'll give you a sneak peek at my mad skills.

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The other big piece of news we have is that we're moving! Since my new job is in Madison, we decided to move to an apartment between her school and my office. That should cut about half an hour off my commute. The place is also really nice. For more details, click here.

Also, if you want to come to Milwaukee and help us move, that'd be sweet.

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There's a lot more I should write, but seeing as how I get up at 6 am, I should go to bed. Hope all is well, and I'll try to update again a little sooner.