Because it’s a slow day at work (and because the internet is down here, thus giving me no recourse to kill time [I’m writing this in Word, if you’re interested]), I thought I would blog it up.

If you can’t figure out by the dates between posts, I’ve given up assuming a regular blog schedule. I figure that now I’ll write whenever something interests me. (Or I’m bored, as now.)

Quick political update: Bush is in the tank and there’s not too much he can do at this point to rally his poll numbers. Most of those who support him will do so no matter what, and most of those who are opposed have such an ingrained hatred for him that there is little he can do at this point to win them back.

However, barring some MAJOR political events between now and November, there is no chance the Democrats will take either house of Congress. None. Incumbents are simply too entrenched in their positions. The Dems will probably pick up seats in each house, but the GOP will hold a majority through 2008 at least.

Speaking of 2008, the race seems to be getting more wide open by the day. On the Republican side, John McCain is the obvious frontrunner, but he’ll face some challenges ahead. Primarily (pun intended), they’ll come from his right, where conservatives do not trust him in the least. They see him as a publicity whoring moderate.

Meanwhile, the media is starting to realize what they’ve done in marking McCain as “the good Republican” as opposed to the dirty, evil radical right-wingers that he works with. They’ve built up McCain into the most popular political figure in America (save maybe Giuliani) and now that McCain is reestablishing his conservative roots, they can’t smear him like they have other Republicans.

As such, conservatives would be very very foolish to ignore McCain in 2008. They do so at their own peril. John McCain, if nominated, will win the general election against anyone the democrats put up. Hillary Clinton would have no chance. Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, John Kerry, Al Gore, John Edwards, Jesus Christ? No chance. McCain is that popular.

And he’s more conservative than most realize. He’s one of the biggest hawks in Congress. He’s strongly pro-life and anti-gay marriage. He’s tough on spending. He’s not perfect, but he’s about as good as it gets.

On the left, Hillary is of course the favorite, but conventional wisdom has really turned against her over the past few months. Liberals and conservatives alike have tired of her endless repositioning, triangulating and calculating. Her posturing has opened her up to attacks on both her left and her right.

On the left, she’ll face a challenge from one of Russ Feingold, John Kerry, or Al Gore. What Feingold has going for him is his strong history of liberalism (see his 2001 Patriot Act vote) and a visceral anti-Bush crowd of supporters. Despite repeated warnings, some on the left will still ignore electability and seek out the most liberal candidate they can find.

Gore and Kerry, meanwhile, have reestablished their bond with the left since their respective election defeats. Gore grew a crazy beard, went into hiding, and came back screaming about global warming to anyone who would listen. Kerry, meanwhile, tried to filibuster Samuel Alito from the Swiss Alps. Douchebag.

From the center will be Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, and maybe a few other governors. They will attack Hillary’s past and posturing and argue that they are the only candidates that can end 8 years of Republican governance. If Warner emerges fro this crowd, as seems likely, Hillary will face a formidable and polished foe.

The good news for Hillary is that a lot of the potential Democratic candidates REALLY want to be president. I say this is good news because the glut of candidates could really dilute the money and volunteer pool. With Hillary’s commanding early money lead, the longer it takes for one anti-Hillary alternative to emerge, the longer she’ll have this commanding lead. If she can do enough early to convince the other candidates that they’re campaigns are lost causes, she should win the nomination.

Long story short (Too late!), I still think McCain and Hillary are going to be the nominees in 2008. And I think John McCain will wipe the floor with her smug, self-satisfied, smirking face.

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In other news, Lauren’s got me hooked on American Idol, as much as it pains me to admit it. Quick predictions:

5. Paris

4. Elliot

3. Catherine

2. Taylor

1. Chris

And one other prediction: Paula Abdul will be arrested at some point in the next three years for possession of illegal drugs. Either that, or institutionalized for insanity.